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After the Security Council meetings on April 23 and 30, how do you assess progress on the Sahara issue?
I do not yet see sufficiently clear signals to be optimistic about a real breakthrough, particularly from the Algerian side. Algeria remains a key player in this matter, and its role is essential to any possible progress.
Moreover, the situation in Iran could have indirect repercussions on the Sahara issue. The attention of the United Nations and major powers engaged in seeking a political solution may shift toward other, more urgent geopolitical priorities.
The United States is exerting pressure on Algeria to resume discussions. Are you optimistic about the emergence of a mutually acceptable political solution, or do you fear a new escalation?
I doubt that a mutually acceptable political solution will emerge in the current context. The Polisario is going through a deep crisis of despair, one that has now reached worrying proportions. The May 5 attack on Smara is a clear illustration of this. It reflects a loss of political direction and an inability to engage in a constructive dynamic.
Does the attack on Smara reveal divergences within the Polisario and Algeria between supporters of a political solution and advocates of the military option?
This attack primarily reveals the growing despair within the Polisario Front. The organization no longer enjoys the same level of popularity among the populations of the Tindouf camps and is no longer perceived as the sole representative of the Sahrawis.
However, I do not observe any change in the position of Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune on the Sahara issue. Algeria remains the Polisario’s main supporter. I would also recall that the Algerian authorities orchestrated a coup in 1975 to impose a Polisario leadership aligned with their interests.
The current Polisario leaders know they have no political future in Western Sahara within the framework of free and democratic elections. They are aware that they represent a political minority, while many Sahrawis now support various Moroccan political parties. That is why they cling to the status quo to ensure their political survival.
After the attack on Smara, does the Polisario remain a credible interlocutor for a political solution in Western Sahara?
This attack marks a further escalation. The Polisario believed that by targeting Smara, it could pressure the United States into pushing the Trump administration to pay greater attention to its positions. That strategy ultimately proved counterproductive.
Security Council Resolution 2797 marked a significant shift in the approach to the issue. The search for a solution is now increasingly centered around Morocco and within the Moroccan framework. This dynamic opens the way for broader participation by both Sahrawi and non-Sahrawi stakeholders in shaping a lasting solution.
However, this remains a long-term process. The Polisario and Algeria appear determined to play the waiting game, hoping for a possible departure of Donald Trump from the White House and the arrival of a U.S. administration they believe would be less firm and less demanding toward them.
