Opta supercomputer predicts Morocco will challenge Brazil for top spot in Group C

Morocco are expected to emerge as Brazil’s main challengers in Group C of the 2026 World Cup, according to Opta’s latest tournament simulations. The Atlas Lions reached the knockout stage in 88.7% of the 10,000 simulations run by the Opta supercomputer and finished top of the group in 28.6% of them.

Only Brazil posted stronger numbers, qualifying from the group in 96.9% of simulations and topping Group C 60.2% of the time. Scotland, making their first World Cup appearance since 1998, advanced in 65.6% of simulations, while Haiti were given just a 15.8% chance of reaching the round of 32, the lowest probability among all 48 teams at the tournament.

Opta described Morocco as the strongest African contender at the World Cup, citing the Atlas Lions’ historic fourth-place finish in Qatar in 2022, their 2025 Africa Cup of Nations triumph and a flawless qualifying campaign in which they won all eight of their matches.

The projections suggest Morocco are well positioned to secure a place in the knockout stage and could even challenge Brazil for top spot in the group. The two sides will meet in their opening Group C fixture, before Morocco face Scotland and Haiti.