South Africa's election : ANC's decline could boost Morocco's Sahara stance

Could the defeat of the African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa's legislative elections on May 29 be an «opportunity for Morocco on Western Sahara», asks the daily Le Monde? «The weakening of the ANC, which won 40.21% of the vote and thus lost its absolute majority, would be 'good news for Morocco'», the French daily estimates.

Nevertheless, the reality of the numbers gives Cyril Ramaphosa's ANC every chance of leading the country for at least the next five years. The party has the choice of sharing power with other formations, such as the centrist and liberal Democratic Alliance, which came in second with 21.79% of the vote, or the party founded by former president Jacob Zuma, a former member of the ANC, which received 14.61% of the vote, or even the left-wing radicals of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), led by Julius Malema, which received 9.48% of the vote.

With a coalition of the three parties, for example, «South Africa's position on the Western Sahara issue would not budge an inch. The ANC and the EFF mentioned in their manifestos that they support the organization of a referendum. As for the MK (uMkhonto weSizwe), even if it did not explicitly mention it in its manifesto, Jacob Zuma has always been in favor of the right to self-determination», says South African analyst François Conradie of the British firm Oxford Economics in statements to Le Monde.

For the record, Jacob Zuma had shown a certain «understanding» of Morocco's position on the Sahara issue after his meeting with King Mohammed VI in Abidjan on November 29, 2017, on the sidelines of the African Union-European Union summit.

A meeting denounced by the ANC. «Morocco is an African country and we have to have relations with them. We have never had problems with them. They were the first to break diplomatic relations», he said in response to South Africa's recognition of the SADR in 2004.

But since then, Zuma has been ousted from the presidency, forced to spend several months in prison for corruption, and is currently disqualified from running for office by order of the Constitutional Court. The end of his disgrace would be his first priority in negotiations with the ANC of his great adversary, Cyril Ramaphosa.

The Polisario has not yet commented on the results of the legislative elections of May 29 in South Africa.