The Sahara sent warnings before it became a desert

Dramatic shifts in weather patterns, like the Sahara's transformation from a lush landscape to desert, are notoriously difficult to predict. Scientists are now developing methods to understand and foresee these changes earlier.

Researchers from Germany's Technical University of Munich (TUM) and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) have created a new method to predict these major weather changes. The method analyzes data for early warning signs, similar to how today's weather depends on yesterday's.

This new method was applied to the Sahara's desertification. During a period in prehistory known as the African Humid Period, the Sahara, which includes large parts of Morocco, Algeria, Chad, Egypt, Libya, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Sudan and Tunisia, was covered in vegetation. However, unpredictable changes in weather patterns turned this green region into a desert.

Tipping points

Scientists tested their new method on the Sahara turning into a desert, and it worked well! According to their conclusions, published earlier in June, before the Sahara turned into a desert, there were warning signs.

«Our findings suggest the abrupt end of the African Humid Period was likely caused by a weakening stability as Earth's orbital configuration changed, pushing the system towards a tipping point», explained Andreas Morr, one of the study's authors and a mathematician and physicist working on the European research project «Tipping Points in the Earth System» (TiPES).

Niklas Boers, co-author, added, «Our results suggest large-scale climate tipping events can be anticipated, enabling timely interventions. The advanced detection method enhances our ability to monitor and respond to potential tipping points in various natural systems».

Indeed, the new method is like a better weather forecast, but for big changes in Earth's systems. Knowing these changes are coming can help us protect the environment and people.