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Prospects for improved Morocco-Algeria relations are bleak, according to Oxford Analytica, an international consulting firm that provides strategic analysis of global events. In an article published this week, dedicated to the strained relations between Rabat and Algiers, the firm states that tensions between the two neighboring countries «show no sign of respite».
Oxford Analytica notes that, despite both Algeria and Morocco's efforts to avoid war, an arms race and aggressive posturing keep tensions high, the firm explains.
One of the key factors fueling tensions is the Western Sahara issue. According to Oxford Analytica, the breakdown of the ceasefire in November 2020 has made the situation more volatile. The firm also recalls security incidents in 2021 and 2023, which involved civilian casualties and nearly led to military conflict.
The current calm between Morocco and Algeria largely depends on both sides exercising restraint, driven mainly by the uncertainty of the consequences of war, which «could destroy their nationalist credentials and legitimacy and fuel domestic instability».
An arms race
Another factor that keeps tensions high between the two countries is military imbalance. Algeria's military is significantly larger than Morocco’s, with more personnel, tanks, planes, and ships. Algeria has 520,000 active military members, compared to Morocco’s 200,000, and a much larger defense budget, spending $18.3 billion in 2023, compared to Morocco's $5.2 billion.
However, Morocco benefits from regular US arms purchases, cooperation with Israel, and technological advancements in areas such as drones and air defense systems. Oxford Analytica notes that in the event of conflict, Morocco could secure emergency support from the US, Israel, and France, while Algeria remains more reliant on Russia.
One factor that could help avoid war is the reliance both countries have on European partners and foreign investors. A war would undermine these diplomatic and economic efforts.
The US Role
While the Biden administration has played a key role in preventing conflicts in Western Sahara from escalating by engaging diplomatically with both countries to maintain balance and avoid favoritism or isolation, it remains unclear how the Trump administration would handle the situation.
Both Algeria and Morocco are cautious about the impact of US President Donald Trump’s stance on the region. Oxford Analytica indicates that while Morocco hopes for continued US support, especially after Trump recognized its sovereignty over Western Sahara in 2020, Algeria is trying to strengthen its ties with the US, signaling its willingness to cooperate on security.
The firm outlines two possible scenarios for future US policy in North Africa: «Washington could simply disengage from the area, which is of limited relevance to its interests, as Trump did during most of his previous term; or it could openly back Morocco, as suggested by the December 2020 declaration and Rubio’s past statements».
Although direct conflict remains unlikely, rising military spending, aggressive rhetoric, and disinformation on social media could exacerbate tensions, the firm adds. The Polisario Front may push for more drastic actions, which could lead to escalation that Algeria would need to manage carefully to avoid a full-scale war.
The report concludes by predicting that in the event of a Morocco-Algeria conflict, impacts could include new waves of migration to Europe and disruptions to trade in the Mediterranean Sea.
