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Moody's has completed its periodic review of Morocco’s credit ratings and related entities without making any changes.
Morocco retains its Ba1 rating, reflecting a balance between effective policies, a strong domestic funding base, and ongoing challenges such as low income levels and risks in the public and banking sectors. Despite rising debt, the country has maintained social cohesion and economic support amid recent shocks.
Economic growth slowed to 2.6% in 2024, down from 3.4% in 2023, due to low rainfall impacting agriculture. However, medium-term growth is expected to recover to 3.5%, supported by ongoing structural reforms. In 2024, the budget deficit stood at 4.3% of GDP, lower than the projected 4.5%, thanks to higher-than-expected tax revenues. Meanwhile, the current account deficit remained stable at 2.5% of GDP, supported by tourism, exports, and remittances from Moroccans abroad.
Despite progress, the Moroccan economy still faces structural weaknesses, including low per capita income and climate-dependent growth. However, higher-value sectors are gradually expanding. Morocco benefits from a solid institutional framework and strict fiscal and monetary policies, earning it a Baa2 governance score. Nonetheless, public sector weight and foreign currency debt (17.6% of GDP) remain risk factors. The banking sector, though stable, faces vulnerabilities linked to credit concentration and overseas operations.
The stable outlook reflects a balance of risks and opportunities. If successful, economic and social reforms could enhance resilience and stabilize debt. However, increased public spending, particularly on infrastructure and social protection, could weigh on the rating.
A rating upgrade would require faster growth beyond agriculture, formal job creation, and reduced inequalities. Conversely, a rising debt burden, especially from public sector obligations, could put downward pressure on the rating.
