Trump’s return and pressure on Algeria could end Sahara conflict [Spanish Institute]

The «Coordenadas» Institute for Governance and Applied Economics has stated that the Western Sahara conflict is moving toward a resolution, following the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency in January 2025.

According to the Madrid-based Spanish institute, the Trump administration has called on Algeria and the Polisario Front to immediately enter negotiations with Morocco, emphasizing that autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty is the only viable political solution.

Algeria continues to reject participation in the roundtable discussions initiated by the UN Security Council, maintaining that it is not a party to the conflict but merely an observer—like Mauritania.

Algerian Reluctance and American Pressure

The institute noted that the renewed U.S. recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara, along with Washington's intention to suspend funding for certain UN missions, reflects a growing urgency for Algeria and the Polisario Front to return to the negotiating table and work toward a resolution based on Morocco’s autonomy plan.

While Morocco’s autonomy proposal remains the only credible and realistic solution, advancing it requires both sustained U.S. engagement and a shift in Algeria’s position, the institute emphasized.

The U.S. has reportedly stepped up pressure on Algeria, urging it to disarm the Polisario and dismantle the Tindouf camps as part of broader efforts to bring the parties back to dialogue. Algeria, the institute warned, is likely to face unprecedented pressure, with dwindling diplomatic options.

Should Algeria refuse to comply, it could face increased diplomatic isolation, legal complications over its support for the Polisario, and even secondary sanctions targeting Algerian entities maintaining ties with the group. In contrast, the U.S. is offering Algeria deeper integration into the Western economy, including expanded American investment in its energy sector and access to advanced hydrocarbon exploration technologies.

Another signal of Washington’s determination is the potential designation of the Polisario Front as a «Foreign Terrorist Organization». A recent article published by the Hudson Institute on April 18, 2025, titled «The Strategic Case for Designating the Polisario Front as a Foreign Terrorist Organization», outlined legal arguments suggesting that the group meets the criteria for such classification under Section 219 of the U.S. Immigration and Nationality Act.

Trump's Support Strengthens Morocco’s Position

On the other hand, the Trump administration views Morocco as a key strategic ally in stabilizing the Sahel. According to the institute, U.S. policy on the Sahara is part of a broader geopolitical vision that sees Morocco as a pivotal actor in Africa and a cornerstone of U.S. regional strategy.

Thus, for Washington, resolving the Sahara issue goes beyond territorial considerations, it ties directly into the need for stability in the Sahel, a region increasingly plagued by insecurity and foreign influence, particularly from China, which, notably, does not support the Polisario’s claims.

Economic interests also weigh heavily. The prolonged conflict undermines regional stability and limits access to valuable resources such as uranium, gold, and rare earth minerals, materials critical to global supply chains.

The U.S. recognizes Africa's massive economic potential, fueled by expected demographic and economic growth as well as vast untapped mineral wealth.

The institute further noted that 2025, marking the 50th anniversary of the Green March, could be a symbolic and strategic moment to outline a final resolution to the conflict under U.S. auspices. It also urged the European Union not to remain on the sidelines but to clarify its position and step up its diplomatic efforts to avoid being sidelined in a decisive moment for the region.