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A recent study published by the French National Institute for Demographic Studies indicates that Morocco has entered a new phase in its demographic transition, as its fertility rate has continued to decline steadily in recent decades. For the first time, it has fallen below the demographic replacement threshold of 2.1 children per woman, reaching 1.97 children per woman in 2024, the lowest level ever recorded in the country.
The institute, a French public research body specializing in demography and population studies, examined fertility trends in the three Maghreb countries, Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. It found that Morocco has followed a distinct path compared with its neighbors: unlike Algeria and Tunisia, which saw a temporary rise in the number of children per woman before fertility began declining again, Morocco experienced no such rebound during the years of the new millennium.
According to the study’s data, Morocco has moved from very high fertility rates in the 1970s, ranging between seven and eight children per woman, to today’s much lower levels, a shift the study describes as "rapid and profound.” What sets the Moroccan case apart, however, is the steady, gradual and uninterrupted nature of the decline over the past two decades.
The study argues that this drop is not primarily linked to a later age of marriage, as is the case in Tunisia, but rather to other, more influential factors, foremost among them the widespread use of modern contraception. The proportion of married women using contraceptives in Morocco rose from around 40 percent in the 1990s to about 70 percent in the current decade, alongside broader use of modern methods such as the pill, intrauterine devices, injections and medical implants.
In this respect, the study notes that Morocco’s trajectory resembles that of countries such as Iran and Egypt, where the rapid spread of contraception led to a sharp decline in fertility rates, even as marriage continued to take place at a relatively early age.
Factors shaping decisions on childbirth
The data also show that Morocco’s fertility decline has not been tied to a major shift in the “timing of childbearing.” The highest birth rate has remained concentrated among women aged 25 to 29. However, the decline has gradually affected all age groups, particularly women aged 30 to 34, and later those aged 25 to 29. By contrast, the average age of motherhood has remained almost stable over the past 20 years, at between 30.3 and 30.6 years.
The study also links these changes to Morocco’s broader social and economic context, particularly longer educational pathways and the difficulties women face in entering the labor market. Despite the growing share of women in higher education, women’s economic participation remains low, especially after the age of 30, a stage that often coincides with family responsibilities and childcare.
The study suggests that these factors are prompting many families to have fewer children and to place greater emphasis on the quality of education, care and living conditions, rather than on having a large number of children. This reflects a gradual shift in family values and lifestyles within Moroccan society.
From a demographic standpoint, the study warns that the continued decline in fertility will accelerate population aging in Morocco, with the share of children and young people falling as the proportion of older people rises. The data show that people aged 60 and over accounted for 13.8 percent of the population in 2024, a figure expected to increase in the coming years.
The study concludes that Morocco is moving toward a phase of “permanently low fertility,” with no signs of a return to higher birth rates as seen previously in some countries of the region. It argues that ongoing social, economic and cultural transformations are laying the foundations for a new family model based on having fewer children and increasingly delaying or planning births.
