Morocco's economy to grow 2.4% in Q1-2024, HCP says

In a recent report, Morocco's statistics office (HCP, Haut-Commissariat au Plan) has set its economic growth projection for the first quarter of 2024, anticipating a rate of +2.4% on an annual basis. This marks a decline from the +3.5% growth recorded during the same period in the previous year.

According to the HCP's economic outlook for the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, the national economic growth is expected to experience moderation in the coming months. The recovery that commenced in late 2023 has encountered obstacles, primarily due to the resurgence of autumnal drought conditions.

The delay in the installation of early crops during the 2023/2024 agricultural campaign has been a significant contributing factor, with the HCP noting a substantial 53% rainfall deficit in the first four months compared to a typical agricultural season.

«The agricultural sector's value added could see a positive uptick of 0.5% on an annual basis if rainfall conditions readjust to a normal seasonal pattern, particularly in the first quarter of 2024», suggests the HCP.

Beyond agriculture, the growth trajectory is expected to be sustained at a rate of 2.9%, driven by the continual expansion of secondary sector activities. Key contributors include chemical industries, the manufacturing of transportation equipment, and the automotive sector.

Noteworthy is the resurgence of extractive industries, showcasing an impressive 9.4% increase in annual variation, a stark contrast to the -11.8% recorded just a year earlier. While services are expected to exhibit a more moderate growth, they will maintain a substantial contribution to economic growth, accounting for 1.6 points compared to the secondary sector's 0.5 points.