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Morocco's normalization of relations with Israel was officially announced in December 2020. The Trump administration facilitated normalization agreements between Israel and four Arab countries—Bahrain, Sudan, the UAE, and Morocco—marking a significant shift in regional relations and sparking public debate across the Middle East and North Africa.
The normalization deal included changes in U.S. policy that resonated with the hopes of citizens in the participating countries. For instance, the United States recognized Morocco's sovereignty over Western Sahara and removed Sudan from the list of state sponsors of terrorism.
A primary goal of the Abraham Accords was to foster a «warm peace» between Israel and the four Arab states. The signatories of the accords envisioned economic cooperation and cultural interaction reshaping public opinion in these countries to view Israel more favorably. Moreover, the agreements were designed to be adaptable for potential adoption by other countries, particularly Saudi Arabia.
However, data from the Arab Barometer, an independent research institution, indicate that Moroccans' perception of relations with Israel shifted dramatically following the events of October 7, 2023. Prior to these events—just one year after the Abraham Accords were signed—31% of Moroccans expressed support for normalization.
After the Israeli attack on Gaza, public opinion in Morocco underwent a significant shift, with support for normalization plummeting from 31% to just 13%.
The Arab Barometer stated that «Moroccans are now no more likely to support normalization than Iraqis or Lebanese. Any hopes of a 'warm peace' have dramatically cooled». This change appears directly linked to the war in Gaza.
Among Moroccans who described Israel's military campaign as «genocide», only 9% expressed support for normalization. By contrast, among those who referred to it as a «conflict», support remained at 31%, consistent with the pre-October 7 figures.
«Morocco offers a cautionary example for hopes for the future of normalization. The war in Gaza has fundamentally shifted attitudes about normalization. The horrific images coming out of Gaza have been witnessed in Morocco and across MENA turning those who were once supportive of peace agreements with Israel to opponents».
Accordingly, the Arab Barometer concludes that a warm peace remains elusive and, under current circumstances, appears unattainable between Israel and Arab countries. Renewed efforts to expand the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia and other nations are likely to face substantial hurdles.
The survey underscores that warm peace will only become viable once an independent Palestinian state is established. Until then, even if the Abraham Accords are extended to additional countries, the most likely outcome is a cold peace, akin to Israel's relations with Jordan and Egypt.
