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By 2060, Morocco's population is projected to grow from 36.8 million to 43.3 million, an increase of 17.8%. However, this growth will be accompanied by a sharp slowdown in the annual population growth rate, which is expected to decline from 0.7% in 2024 to nearly zero by 2060. According to updated demographic projections released by the High Commission for Planning (HCP), demographic trends will also vary significantly across the country.
Based on the results of the 2024 General Population and Housing Census (RGPH) and incorporating recent data on fertility, mortality, and internal and international migration, the HCP projects continued growth in Morocco's urban population. By 2060, it is expected to reach nearly 32.5 million, representing around three-quarters of the country's total population. Meanwhile, the rural population is projected to decline to 10.8 million, highlighting the growing challenges associated with urbanization and the need to adapt public policies.
According to the HCP, Morocco will need to meet rising demand for housing, infrastructure, and social services while reducing regional disparities. At the same time, the projected decline in the rural population underscores the need to strengthen rural development to improve living conditions, retain residents, particularly young people, and make better use of local resources in order to preserve social and territorial cohesion.
New challenges as the population ages
The HCP also expects declining fertility to significantly reduce the number of young people, particularly those of preschool and school age, creating an opportunity to shift education policies toward improving the quality and performance of the education system.
The preschool-age population is projected to fall by 23.8%, from 1.25 million in 2024 to 960,000 in 2060. The number of children of primary school age is expected to decrease by 27%, from 4.16 million to 3.04 million, while the population in the first cycle of basic education would decline by 22.9%, from 2.08 million to 1.61 million.
The working-age population, estimated at 22.08 million in 2024, is projected to grow moderately to 24.96 million by 2060 (+13.1%), although with sharp territorial disparities. Driven by continued rural exodus, the urban working-age population is expected to rise from 14.2 million to 19.1 million (+34.4%), while the rural working-age population would fall from 7.9 million to 5.9 million.
The decline will be particularly pronounced among 18- to 24-year-olds, who represent the future labor force. Their number is projected to decrease from 3.89 million to 3.77 million (-3.1%) between 2024 and 2060. At the same time, Morocco's population will continue to age rapidly. According to the HCP, the share of people aged 60 and over could reach around 25% of the population by 2060, with their numbers more than doubling from 5 million in 2024 to nearly 10.9 million.
Adapting public policies
According to the HCP, these trends will lead to a higher dependency ratio, posing major challenges for pension financing, healthcare provision, and maintaining family and intergenerational solidarity. The institution stresses that, regardless of the scenario considered, population aging has become a structural and long-term trend.
To address these challenges, the HCP calls for balanced and sustainable economic and social development, supported by forward-looking public policies focused on rural development, better-managed urbanization, adapting the labor market, and reforming social protection systems.
The projections were produced using the component method, the demographic model used by the United Nations and the World Bank. According to the HCP, the 2060 horizon was chosen to better capture the long-term structural effects of demographic change while limiting uncertainties surrounding key demographic assumptions.
