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The study entitled «Maroc 2030 : Quelles voies d’émergence ? Scénarios 2017-2030» which gives a structural overview on the Moroccan economy was released on Wednesday 27th of September by the Moroccan Center of Conjunction (CMC). The survey aimed to discuss and give valuable data on the vulnerability to external shocks, the inability of the economy to undergo rapid restructuring and the lack of inclusiveness of economic growth leading to deep financial imbalances, explained Mhammed Tahraoui, an economist and Ahmed Laaboudi, director of the center during a press conference held yesterday in Casablanca.
With the objective of identifying the paths that are supposed to lead to an economic model other than the existing one, according to the CMC economists, the latter have developed possible scenarios for the national economy. These scenarios are set to help economists determine the way to a regular and sustained economic growth.
Potential for a growing economy
To carry out its exploratory analysis, the CMC used a dual approach combining the main determinants, on the supply side as well as the demand side. Thus, the long-term evolution of economic activity that is fundamentally based on the accumulation of factors of production and productivity gains on the supply side has been analyzed through potential growth.
In addition, with a view aiming at complementing potential growth, another approach has been added: effective growth. The latter is the result of demand behavior, to which must be added any adjustments in economic policy : fiscal and monetary.
Indeed, three main scenarios emerge from the analysis of the CMC: a GDP growth rate of 3.6%, the same level currently recorded; 4.5%, too little to reach an emerging status for the Moroccan economy; 6.3%, a «mobilizing» scenario that would require a very strong investment policy, the contribution of foreign investment and an increasingly important opening to external demands, beyond the internal one which is the pillar of the present economic model.
«There is potential to exploit, it is real and lies in the accumulation as well as the productivity of productive factors», recalled the economists of the Center. «Potential can be achieved through appropriate supply policies. And this, without omitting the technological factor that would have to benefit the almost 1 million students of the Moroccan universities,» they added.
It is also worth recalling that the MAD floating project is moving in the right direction, except that it will have to be properly managed through in-depth studies and above all within a controlled range. «Morocco has no choice, since it has opted to open up to a world where 70% of the currencies in circulation have opted for flexible regimes,» insist the economists of the Moroccan Center of conjuncture.
