Morocco : Economy to post contraction of 6.3% before GDP rebounds by 4.7% in 2021

The domestic economy would post a contraction of 6.3% during this year, before GDP rebounds by 4.7% in 2021, said the Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM-central bank) in its forecasts.

«According to the baseline scenario adopted by Bank Al-Maghrib, domestic economy would post a contraction of 6.3%, with declines of 5.3% in agricultural value added and 6.3% in non-agricultural sectors», said the bank in a statement following its Board's third quarterly meeting of the year 2020.

For the whole of 2020, the forecast announced in June was adjusted downwards in view of the slower-than-expected recovery of activity, the implementation of some local or sector-based restrictions following the resurgence of infections, and the continued almost general closure of borders for travelers, the source added.

In 2021, GDP would rebound by 4.7%, driven by a 12.6% increase in agricultural value added, assuming a cereal harvest of 75 million quintals, and a 3.7% improvement in non-agricultural value added. These projections, which remain surrounded by an exceptionally high degree of uncertainties related in particular to the evolution of the pandemic, the scope of its repercussions and the pace of recovery, will have to be regularly updated, according to the bank.