What’s your prediction on the time it’ll take for the US and Allies to leave Iraq and for Iraq to be governed by 100% Iraqis? I say at least 5 years , government installed or not, I really can’t see it taking shape any other way..
I just cannot figure it out and that's because the iraq now, would never be the iraq of 3 years ago ...
I imagine iraq (in its internals) like palestine, eventough they "will have" an "independant government"
I will give them 10 years and who knows
"Hé ! bonjour, Monsieur du Corbeau.
Que vous êtes joli ! que vous me semblez beau !
Sans mentir, si votre ramage
Se rapporte à votre plumage,
Vous êtes le Phénix des hôtes de ces bois."
Hi Almot, In contrast to you who expect just 5 years for normalisation of the situation in Irak, I think we are just at the early stages of KO´s. The new governement and, the parlement and all this building of institutions are taking place in the green zone. The moderate sunnis did refuse to join Al Jaafari governement. Even these sunnis who went for the US game and with a minority in the parlement dis ask for five minister positions, defence, etc.... Since these moderate sunnis were not satisfied by Al Jaafari offer..etc you can immagine what will happen. Do not forget the baath party was very organized under Saddam. They are the best informed on the country and the american know this. The US have no choice, they will stay in the country at least 20 years and if they leave in just 5 years, there will be a civil war......and Irak will be a big Libanon. take care
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/01/2005 08:28 by Krim.
Hello Krim and l9bi7, Both your predictions make more sense than mine, I’m sure. I have to admit I went pretty light in giving mine. It’s such a mess that can’t be solved in a short time, a real nightmare that may drag the entire region in series of wars and distraction. Plus the fact that the insurgent seems to gain momentum with every passing day, and lets face it, you can’t hope to have a peaceful country when you alienate 25 % of the population, and that’s what’s happening with the Sunnis. I think sometime soon we’re going to see the Italians and even the British troops leave the area. Cheers,
A quick answer might be a number of years!!! between 10 and 20 years seems resonable; but again, I'd like to link what's going on in IRAK with the state of the economy in the States!!! The presence of the U.S forces in IRAQ is a must on one hand...because it's just insane to leave now, and because they can't leave...it'll be another historical embarassement! another Vietnam if you will...let's remmember that Vietnam is a ghost that THe U.S soldiers can't seem to forget or wipe out...so there's such a thirst for Victory even if it has nothing to do with U.S territory...On the other hand, the presence of the american soldiers is une Raison d'etre!!! there's talk about adding more money to recruit rather than call platoons back!!! the message is those guys are saving the rest of the US !!! deficit"s" should be tolerated because " we are doing it for the troops and the troops are sacrificing their lives for US"...this message is already Sacred and everybody, almost everybody, is careful when talking about the troops...to gather my thoughts,I'll go back to money already spent in IRAQ...the U.S somehow needs to get paid, it's after all for oil everybody used to say...well Not only that...it's also for instability in the region!!! notice how the dossier Palestine and Israel has taken a secondary role...Also, should there be glimpses of peace for THE palestinians and the Israelis there must be some kind of force to uphold the talks and should there be a reaction from the neighbors; let's say Iran...Presence of the troops is a back up for Israel!!! did I go to far!!! may be, but it just makes more sense NOw for troops to have carte d'identite national Irakiene!!! meaning a 10 year minimum stay is very reasonable... My only hope is that the next government will decide if the U.S is really going to work for peace or instability in the region! This might have a chance should the democrats win it!! If it's a Rovian orientated gov. then there will be more troop deplyment to get ready for Iran and the Putin like leaders!!! Almot, Sorry but I find more reasons for the troops to stay and solidify their position rather than prepare for a Retreat!!! " remember your thread about "HERO"... Heroes are needed in the U.S to go with the Surge of post 11 september"patriotism"...That's the emotional or psychological aspect of it...the financial one is the U.S needs to recover some of the expenses ( rebuilding contracts), the other strategically the Troops presence will be ableto stop any other Saddams!!! I'll wait to read your reactions and read what I wrote!
Hello Yani, You nailed many good points in your replay, if you look at my replay to Krim and l9bi7, you’ll see that I’d already revised my prediction about the duration of the conflict. I have to tell you, I’ve never been so pessimist like I’m about this war. It seems there’s no solution that will satisfy all parties. And just like you said, the US will do anything not to have a repeat of Vietnam, and the insurgence seems, as I said, to get stronger and more defiant, and nothing short of a full withdrawal of foreign troops will end their attacks. Another thing that the media “seem” to always forget to mention, but you did, is the fact that the US presence is a great shield and assurance for the state of Israel. But should the US go, god forbid, after Iran or Syria, then the conflict will spread to all the region, and its impact will be felt in the entire world, along with one certainty, bringing more fundamentalists governments in the Arab countries. Remember, in recent years how the religious movements gained lots of ground in every Arab and Muslim country, and they are waiting just for the right time, nothing will bring the right time for them more than the west attacking their lands. I’m not optimistic as well about the peace process between the Palestinians and Israel for one reason, why would Israel, strong as it is today, in front of an Arab world weak and traumatized, give a foot of land to the Palestinians? Look how they announce and deal with the so called withdrawal from that little (Houma) or Derb called Gaza, they make it sound so huge, so big of a sacrifice from Israel that other withdrawals like from the west bank will be almost impossible. and they already succeeded in convincing the world that they are making a great sacrifice by leaving Gaza. And in all this, my friend, one thing is more apparent than all, the silence of the Arab world. In a way, the Iraq conflict, believe it or not, did bring some positive results, many dictators in the region made some changes for fear their door could be next, and so, in a miserable and humiliating fashion, the dictator in Libya asked for forgiveness, said Mettayeb Lillah, paid billions and gave up on his weapons program, Kuwait and Saudi are allowing women to vote, not because they want to, but because they have no choice, many countries released prisoners of opinion and journalists, and the rest of the Arab world, with their mouths wide open, and their tongues clean and brushed, are so ready to kiss the west’s A??… what a shame!! what a dark page of history is been written in front of our eyes!!!! I hope I didn’t stray away from the subject…
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/02/2005 09:01 by almotanabi.
Do you really think, that the democracy can save Irak ?
1 --> What does democracy mean ? I try to explain my opinion, you will be desagree with me It (the democracy) use the language which is pleasante. It persuades them (European, american) that their life is great, they have liberty, equality and assurance. Be carfull, They dont know that, It is arranging their life and they are not any liberty to think. The worst of the democracy takes root in their minded.
2-->Why the democracy is dangerous ? when we think : there is democracy or nothing , no liberty, no equality.... We can’t choose. It's the same dictatorship.,
European, american and most people of western are extremly pleased with it. Do you think that the arabic asia civilizations need it ? Do you really think that the democracy can change their life or it will save them ? No, It check their life not It does not regulate their life They (European, american, and most people) think, that they have “the truth”. It’s more dangerous when someone thinks to have “the TRUTH”
Who have the truth “The european and american civilization" who is in the darkness In the french we say “le choc des civilisations”. Sorry my english is not better than yours. I must use french’s language
I think it’s a pretty good package the one the Sunnis get, I couldn’t believe they actually get the defense ministry position, the Kurds and the Shiites both wanted that one. But ones again nothing will work without the inclusion of the Sunnis in the picture. Thank you for trying to lift my spirit up.
Hi Belle,
first I want to tell you that your English is fine and I do understand everything you said. However we do differ in the way we see what democracy means. I see it as a must for all people of the world, I also don’t think it’s dangerous, and if all that democracy can offer me is the ability to choose the people who I want to lead and speak for me, then I embrace it with all means.
Cheers,
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/04/2005 05:16 by almotanabi.
Je ne peux pas m'exprimer en anglais de la manière dont je m'exprime en français, mon vocabulaire est plus riche et je fais moins de faute.
François Lenglet journal les echos dit : Démocratie et liberté politique ne seraient elles que des formes d'organisation contingentes, duex aux climat tempéré et naturel paisible de nos tribus occidental ?"
Il ajoute : Faut il défendre de l'accusation d'"occidentalocentrisme" portée par les partisans de la relativité des valeurs humaines ? Si les valeurs humaines sont bonnes, ce n'est pas parce que c'est les nôtre. C'est parce qu'elles sont bonnes qu'elles sont les nôtres"...
Dites moi ce que vous en pensez. Vous pouvez le faire en anglais je comprendrai
Mot pour le modérateur désolée mais c'était trop de pouvoir traduire cet article vous comprendrez que je n'ai pas un vocabulaire assez riche
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 05/03/2005 09:34 by Belle.
I'll pick up from where you finished Almot: I agree with you in the sense that this saga of invasion/ democratization..got to shake the comfort of the Big bellies in the region!!! It is somewhat strange to see how the so called Arab leaders have been reacting to the whole restructuring process that's taking place in the "SHAM" land"!!! I gather there's some good that must come out of evil! Good reading again. Yani
I'll pick up from where you finished Almot: I agree with you in the sense that this saga of invasion/ democratization..got to shake the comfort of the Big bellies in the region!!! It is somewhat strange to see how the so called Arab leaders have been reacting to the whole restructuring process that's taking place in the "SHAM" land"!!! I gather there's some good that must come out of evil! Good reading you again. Yani
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